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Of DOGE, Diplomacy and Deportations..

First, for the key headlines from the last 2 weeks (2/3-2/21) click here

Now... some topcis for deep dive: 











1. Federal Lay-offs

Despite all the legal blockades the mass firing of Federal employees continue at Washington DC and in other parts of the country. There's probably not a single person in the country who does not believe that there is fraud and waste in the Federal government, but putting a chainsaw through the 3 million strong Federal government does not seem to be a brilliant idea to anyone unless someone subscribes to the theory of retribution politics. What stands out about this massive wrecking ball attack on the Federal workforce is how timidly the Congress is watching and accepting this and how an un-elected individual is being given a carte blanche to do whatever he wants without any checks and balances. For example, the rest of the administration is so lazy that it even used the same memo title, Fork in the road,  that Musk used to fire bulk of the employees at Twitter. OPM used the title in its memo and the FAQ document. As one would expect, a random and unplanned purge of Federal departments will have fraught with callous mistakes. Here are few examples where DOGE executed firing orders only to realize they were letting go unintended people. The first one happened at the National Nuclear Security Administration where 350 people were abruptly laid off and then the agency's acting director rescinded the firings after a day. The second one happened in Department of Transportation where workers with exceptional reviews told that they were let go for sub-par performance. The other example of similar indiscriminate firing took place in USDA, where officials working on active Bird flu issues were first fired and then the government tried to re-hire them.


2. A tale of two visits (Netanyahu and Modi)

On the heels of taking office, Trump wasted no time in inviting and showing where he and his administration stands in its support of nations and their causes. First in line, not surprisingly, was Netanyahu from Israel. Trump's relationship with Netanyahu has been a mixed bag in the past, but Trump's actions towards Israel has been the most clear-cut compared to any other international relationship he nurtured since 2016. He was clearly in Israel’s corner when he order the shifting of US embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 and he has doubled down on that now, throwing away any pretense of supporting a two-nation theory where the Palestinians have any chance of living in their own country. When Netanyahu came to the White house on Feb 4, he could not believe the number of "gifts" he got in exchange for giving trump a golden beeper, a replica of the ones that killed thousands of Hezbollah operatives in 2024. Netanyahu never expected the bonanza of support he would get from Trump including full take over of Gaza and turning into the Riviera of the Middle East. Among other items of support he got the following from trump: Sanctioning of ICC for declaring Netanyahu a war criminal, withdrawl of US from UN Human Rights body and stopping funding for Palestinian refugees. No wonder Netanyahu during the joint press conference declared Trump the greatest friend Israel ever had. 

When Modi visited the white house on Feb 13th, it was not the same kind of show of solidarity and friendship like what Netanyahu experienced earlier. Though Modi, who knows the mantra to please Trump well, kept heaping praise on Trump impressing him with MAGA, Make India Great Again (MIGA) and MEGA, the warmth of previous Modi-Trump romance was barely visible. The frost in the relationship was palpable during the joint press conference. During the press conference Trump did not mince words in calling out India as the "tariff king". The chill was preceded by Trump's statements against BRICS countries of which India is proud member. Apart from that the real visible shocker was plane load of illegal immigrants shipped out of USA in shackles.  No matter how hard India's foreign Minister Jayshankar tried to discredit the story by calling it a routine process, the images of Indians getting off US military planes in chains was for the whole world to see. In the trade deals, Trump successfully squeezed India to sign quite a few agreements that is clearly tilted to benefit US more than India. Suddenly, Modi got a taste of America First and the fickle-nature of Trump's friendship. If you have to believe the Modi media in India you would think he hit home run, but the facts of the trade deal do not support that. India for the first time ever needs to account for trade imbalance with USA and adjust to Trump's demands of reciprocal tarrifs. How much actual tarrifs will be actually levied is yet to be seen. But at this moment, it is safe to conclude that the sheen of Modi-Tump bromance is fading.

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